Trump leads, Kasich support reaches new high ahead of NY Primary

Washington, April 19 (IANS) Donald Trump remains the top pick of Republicans, but Ohio Governor John Kasich has gained the most ground, according to the latest NBC News Survey Monkey weekly election tracking poll.

Trump remains at 46 percent support this week, unchanged from last week. Texas Senator Ted Cruz dropped two points from last week and now has 28 percent support.

Kasich has 19 percent support, up three points from last week. Kasich’s rise, while modest, still gives him the highest support he has had since the start of the tracking poll.

The poll was conducted online from April 11-17 among 13,020 adults aged 18 and over.

For the most part, the demographics of the electorate have not played a critical role in the Republican primaries this season.

However, some groups have been important to particular candidates. Trump, for example, has done very well among those without college degrees. This has important implications in the New York primary.

In the previous Republican primaries, 16 percent of voters had an education level of high school or less, according to the NBC News Exit poll.

According to results from the NBC News Exit Poll in the 2008 New York Republican primary, 25 percent of the electorate had an education level of high school or less.

Trump has 44 percent support among white evangelicals in the NBC tracking poll this week. That number held steady from last week.

Cruz has 38 percent support among that group, down two points from last week. Kasich got a boost among white evangelicals this week and now has 16 percent support, up from 10 percent.

The significant difference in the number of white evangelicals in New York compared to prior states could hurt Cruz, who has consistently done well among white evangelicals.

While there was not a lot of change in the national numbers this week, the changing composition of the electorate in every state makes it important to examine key subgroups.

The subgroups important in Tuesday’s New York Republican primary suggest that Trump is poised to do well.

Kasich’s rise is also borne out in the NBC national poll, and it will be interesting to see how this translates into votes in the contest.

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