Axis My India Exit Poll projects UDF surge in Kerala, NDA lead in Assam, NRC ahead in Puducherry
New Delhi: The Axis My India exit poll released on Wednesday has said that in Kerala, the United Democratic Front appears poised for a sweeping victory, potentially ending the Left Democratic Front’s tenure.
The poll projects the United Democratic Front to secure between 78 and 90 seats in the 140-member Assembly, comfortably surpassing the majority mark.
The Left Democratic Front, which has governed the state under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, is estimated to win between 49 and 62 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance is expected to remain marginal with 0 to 3 seats.
The vote share projections reinforce this trend, with the United Democratic Front leading at 44 per cent, followed by the Left Democratic Front at 39 per cent and the National Democratic Alliance at 14 per cent.
Regionally, the United Democratic Front has shown strong performance in Kochi and Malabar, while the Left Democratic Front has managed to hold ground in Travancore.
Interestingly, despite Pinarayi Vijayan being the most preferred choice for Chief Minister at 33 per cent, a significant 26 per cent of voters expressed a desire for change, a sentiment that has clearly benefited the United Democratic Front.
The survey was based on 24,419 interviews across all constituencies, reflecting a broad demographic and geographic representation.
In Assam, the exit poll indicates a decisive mandate for the National Democratic Alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The National Democratic Alliance is projected to win between 88 and 100 seats in the 126-member Assembly, far exceeding the majority threshold of 64 seats.
The Congress-led alliance is expected to secure between 24 and 36 seats, while other parties may capture 0 to 3 seats.
The National Democratic Alliance’s projected vote share stands at 48 per cent, marking a 4 per cent increase from 2021, compared to 38 per cent for the Congress-led alliance.
Regionally, the National Democratic Alliance has demonstrated dominance in Bodoland-Bodoland Territorial Council, with 13 to 15 seats, and in Central Assam, with 31 to 35 seats.
Himanta Biswa Sarma remains the most popular choice for Chief Minister, commanding 48 per cent support, while Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi trails at 32 per cent.
Development and state government schemes emerged as key drivers of voter behaviour, with 28 per cent citing development as their primary motivation and 14 per cent highlighting benefits from government programmes.
The survey encompassed 24,228 interviews across all constituencies, ensuring a representative sample of Assam’s diverse electorate.
In Puducherry, the NRC+ alliance, comprising All India N R Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party, All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, and LJK, is projected to retain power.
The alliance is expected to secure between 16 and 20 seats in the 30-member Assembly, maintaining a comfortable majority.
The Congress-led alliance, led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, is projected to win between 6 and 8 seats, while the TVK+ alliance is likely to capture 2 to 4 seats.
The NRC+ alliance leads the vote share at 40 per cent, followed by the Congress-led alliance at 30 per cent and TVK+ at 17 per cent.
N Rangasamy of All India N R Congress remains the most popular choice for Chief Minister, with 42 per cent support.
However, actor-turned-politician Vijay has emerged as a notable contender, securing 17 per cent support for the top post.
Voter motivations varied significantly across alliances, with 30 per cent of NRC+ supporters citing the good work of the state government, while an overwhelming 71 per cent of TVK+ voters expressed a desire for change.
The findings are based on 2,250 interviews conducted across all constituencies, offering insights into the unique political dynamics of Puducherry.