Rupee to trade in 89-90 per dollar range in Dec, RBI unlikely to cut rates
New Delhi: The Indian rupee (INR) is expected to trade with a depreciating bias in the near term, with the United States‑dollar/Indian rupee (USD/INR) rate to trade in the range of 89–90 per dollar this month, a report said on Monday.
The report from Bank of Baroda said that progress on a United States‑India (US‑India) trade deal will be the main catalyst for any sharp move of INR either way.
On the domestic side, we do not expect the RBI to cut rates this meeting, it said, adding that rate cut by the US Fed has been fully priced in by the markets and the dollar is likely to remain range-bound barring any surprise from the Fed.
The US Fed decision and RBI MPC outcome are unlikely to have a significant impact on the currency as the rate differential will be maintained, the bank said.
INR eased 0.8 per cent in November 2025 to close at 89.46 despite a surprisingly strong GDP print. The bank noted that the softening in INR was more pronounced when considering the fact that the dollar weakened in the same period.
The July-September quarter GDP growth came in at 8.2 per cent YoY, higher than 7.8 per cent in the previous quarter and higher than the estimates from economists of 7.5 per cent. While GVA growth came in at 8.1 per cent, nominal GDP grew 8.7 per cent
Crisil Limited revised India’s GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 7 per cent, up from its earlier estimate of 6.5 per cent.
Markets have readjusted their expectations of a US Fed rate cut, with the CME FedWatch now projecting the probability of a rate cut in December at close to 90 per cent.