Midway metrics: Five-state bypoll results mirror continuity, calculated repositioning
New Delhi: The by-election results declared on Monday (June 23), across five Assembly constituencies in Gujarat, Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal, offer a revealing glimpse into the evolving contours of India’s regional political landscape.
While by-elections are often shaped by localised factors and do not always serve as definitive predictors of national trends, the outcomes of these contests—held midway through the current legislative cycles—nonetheless reflect broader undercurrents of voter sentiment, party resilience, and strategic recalibration.
In Gujarat, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) split the honours, underscoring the ruling party’s entrenched dominance and the opposition’s capacity for disruption. BJP’s Rajendrakumar Chavda secured a decisive victory in the Kadi (SC) constituency, defeating Congress’s Rameshbhai Chavda by a margin exceeding 38,000 votes. This result reaffirms the BJP’s formidable organisational machinery in Gujarat, where it currently holds 161 of 182 Assembly seats.
However, AAP’s Gopal Italia reclaimed the Visavadar seat—previously lost to BJP following a defection—by defeating Kirit Patel with a margin of over 17,000 votes. Italia’s return to the Assembly not only restores AAP’s legislative presence in the state but also signals the party’s continued relevance in Gujarat’s political discourse, particularly in Saurashtra, where it had made modest inroads during the 2022 Assembly elections.
Kerala’s Nilambur constituency witnessed a symbolic victory for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), with Aryadan Shoukath defeating CPI(M)’s M Swaraj by over 11,000 votes. The seat, previously held by a CPI(M)-backed independent, returns to the Congress fold after nearly a decade. This outcome, while limited in scope, may be interpreted as an early indication of anti-incumbency sentiment against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), which has governed the state since 2016. Historically, Kerala’s electorate has oscillated between the UDF and LDF in successive elections, and this result could foreshadow a more competitive contest in the 2026 Assembly polls.
In Punjab, AAP’s Sanjeev Arora retained the Ludhiana West seat, albeit with a relatively low voter turnout of 51.33 per cent. Arora, a sitting Rajya Sabha MP, is expected to vacate his upper house seat, potentially paving the way for AAP to nominate a high-profile leader—possibly Arvind Kejriwal—to the Rajya Sabha. The party’s ability to hold the seat reflects its continued urban appeal, though the reduced turnout may also point to voter fatigue or disillusionment with the political class. AAP, which swept the 2022 Assembly elections with 92 of 117 seats, has since faced challenges in governance and internal cohesion, making this bypoll a modest but necessary reaffirmation of its mandate.
West Bengal’s Kaliganj seat remained with the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC), where Alifa Ahmed, daughter of the late MLA Nasiruddin Ahamed, secured a comfortable victory. The TMC’s retention of the seat underscores its enduring grip on rural Bengal, where it has consistently outperformed both the BJP and the Congress-Left alliance. With 215 of 294 seats in the Assembly, the TMC remains the dominant force in the state, and this by-election result reinforces its organisational depth and voter loyalty. When viewed in aggregate, the by-election outcomes largely reinforce existing political alignments rather than disrupting them.
The BJP continues to consolidate its position in Gujarat, the Congress gains a symbolic foothold in Kerala, AAP maintains its urban base in Punjab, and the TMC sustains its rural dominance in Bengal.
However, the results also highlight the strategic importance of candidate selection, local credibility, and issue-based campaigning—factors that have increasingly shaped electoral outcomes in recent years.
Historically, by-elections in India have served as barometers of public mood between general elections. For instance, the 2018 bypolls in Uttar Pradesh’s Gorakhpur and Phulpur—won by the Samajwadi Party in alliance with the BSP—signalled early discontent with the BJP’s governance, despite its eventual victory in the 2019 general elections.
Similarly, the 2021 by-elections in Himachal Pradesh and West Bengal offered early insights into regional shifts that later influenced Assembly outcomes. In this context, the 2025 by-election results, though limited in scale, offer valuable data points for political parties preparing for the 2026 Assembly elections and the 2029 general elections. They underscore the necessity of sustained grassroots engagement, adaptive messaging, and coalition-building in an increasingly fragmented and competitive political environment.
