Polstrat Exit Poll: NDA projected to win 148 seats in Bihar
New Delhi/Patna: The National Democratic Alliance maintains a clear edge in the Bihar assembly elections 2025, according to the People’s Insight and Polstrat exit poll released on Tuesday.
Conducted among 1,349,765 respondents through interactive voice response tele-calling and advanced AI-based simulation models, the survey projects the NDA to secure 133 to 148 seats with a 44.71 per cent vote share, comfortably ahead of the Mahagathbandhan, which is estimated at 87 to 102 seats with 40.34 per cent votes.
Within the NDA, the Bharatiya Janata Party leads with a projected 68 to 72 seats, followed closely by the Janata Dal (United) at 55 to 60 seats.
The Lok Janshakti Party is expected to contribute 9 to 12 seats, while smaller allies Hindustani Awam Morcha and Rashtriya Lok Morcha may win 1 to 2 and 0 to 2 seats, respectively.
On the opposition side, the Rashtriya Janata Dal remains the dominant force in the Mahagathbandhan, projected to capture 65 to 72 seats. The Indian National Congress is estimated at 9 to 13 seats, with Left parties collectively securing 11 to 14 seats.
The Vikassheel Insaan Party may add 2 to 3 seats, while the India Inclusion Party is projected to draw a blank.
Smaller players show marginal influence. Jan Suraaj, despite a notable 7.93 per cent vote share, is expected to win 0 to 2 seats.
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen is projected to secure 2 to 3 seats with 1.74 per cent votes, while the Jan Jan Dal may pick up 0 to 1 seat on a minimal 0.25 per cent.
Independent candidates could win 1 to 2 seats with 2.16 per cent support, and around 2.87 per cent of voters remain undecided or aligned with other minor entities.
The survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 per cent, highlights a tightly contested race where the NDA’s lead, though significant, falls short of a two-thirds majority.
The close vote share gap of just over four percentage points between the two major alliances suggests that regional, caste, and turnout dynamics on the counting day could still alter the outcome.
The methodology incorporated statistical weighting for demographics, geography, and response patterns to ensure representativeness across Bihar’s 243 constituencies.
Final results will determine the accuracy of these projections.
