More setbacks than breakthroughs for Ukraine at NATO Summit
New Delhi: Ukraine’s efforts to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the European Union (EU) suffered a jolt this week as the NATO Summit at The Hague wrapped up without any mention of the same in the official declaration.
The member countries of NATO, however, agreed to invest five per cent of their GDP, which includes 3.5 per cent GDP into core defence requirements, and 1.5 per cent on defence and security related to investments in infrastructure and industry by the year 2035.
The Summit gave the green signal for more defence equipment manufacturing by the European defence contractors, with the NATO leaders agreeing to ramp up and increase their defence budgets.
US President Donald Trump, while describing this as “a monumental win”, made it clear that NATO members should not rely on the US for any military support.
Driven by Trump, the defence budget of the NATO members is expected to pressurise Russian President Vladimir Putin to stay away from Kyiv.
Europe is trying to inflict maximum damage to Russia, not to contain, but to defeat it. Germany is providing assistance to Ukraine via money, weapons as well as setting up facilities for weapon production. The EU has adopted 17 sanction packages, the most recent being on May 14.
For the first time, Trump’s views were supported and accepted by the NATO member countries, all wanting to keep Europe “safe” from Putin. This summit brought into light a lot of fissures and factions between the US and Europe on Russia’s military might and intentions.
However, a rather laidback response was noted between Trump and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Analysts reckon that Russia could mount a large-scale military attack on Ukraine in the coming months. While Russia is building up its forces with the aid of North Korea, Ukraine on the other hand is relying on the EU and NATO for more high tech defence equipment, including drones. Zelensky discussed the US Patriot Air Defence Systems (ADS) and joint weapons production with Trump. It has been reported that Trump might consider selling to Kyiv the US Patriot ADS and missiles, to bolster Ukraine’s ADS along with their European partners.
Ukraine would make a payment of USD $ 30-50 billion directly to the US, or via the fund under the US-Ukraine mineral deal, for the ADS. Ukraine has also upgraded its naval drone, Katran, with strike capabilities reaching targets up to a 100 kms away.
The fight against Russian reconnaissance and drones remains a top priority for Ukraine. Ukraine’s drones and missile strikes destroyed up to one-third of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from 2022 to 2024.The Ukrainian drones are a force multiplier. After manufacturing more than a million drones last year, there have been plans made to cross the number and bring it to over two million this year.
Zelensky called the recent drone attack on the Tupolev nuclear-capable bomber fleet by Ukraine, which targetted five Russian air bases located 3000 km north-South and 5000 km West-East, on June 1, with 117 drones in a single operation called ‘Spider’s Web’, the longest range operation.
The drones were targetted towards Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur regions. The Russian ADS failed in the Murmansk and Irkutsk regions, with the destruction of at least 41 Russian heavy bombers.
Russia attacked Ukraine with Iranian-designed drones, most of which are now made in the Yelabuga drone factory in Tatarstan, Russia. It is believed that Iran transferred software and expertise to Russia.
Putin mentioned about his aim to annex Ukraine at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).
“I have said many times that the Russian and Ukrainian people are one nation, in fact. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours,” said Putin on June 20.
The Europeans fear that Trump’s plan to put an end to the Russia-Ukraine war might never happen with the increasing intensity of the Russian attacks.
It is believed by the Ukrainians that Trump might not be too consistent or strong when it comes to Putin. Based on figures from Statista, the EU and its institutions provided € 52.1 billion euros in regard to the Russian invasion on Ukraine, from January 24 to 28, 2025.
The US provided 114 billion Euros, the highest value of allocations till now.
The US and the other member countries of NATO agreed to accelerate Ukraine’s membership in NATO in July 2024. However, the same commitment was found to be missing from the NATO Summit at The Hague this year. Zelensky, not pursuing the Minsk-I and II Agreements in September 2014 and February 2015, made his commitment to end the war look ‘remote’.
As agreed in a meeting in Istanbul on June 2, the exchange of prisoners of war still continues.
Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, hopes to find a settlement by bringing Putin and Zelensky together, along with Trump, in Turkey.
Although Russia laid out two options for complete ceasefire, it had not provided the memorandum for peace settlement to Ukraine before the meeting, which prolonged the negotiation process further. Russia also rejected Ukraine’s proposal for a 90-day ceasefire.
With the troubled bilateral ties between the US and the EU member states, the trans-Atlantic unity has been possible because of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s entry into NATO and the EU has stalled, with Trump replacing Joe Biden as the US President. Putin’s key condition is that NATO should be placed back from Russia’s borders to the position that existed in the 1990s.
Russia will not support or allow the eastward expansion of NATO at any cost.
The Trump administration has worked well to accommodate Russia in Ukraine and Putin’s Russia is happy with Trump returning to the White House.
(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal)
–IANS
